Category Archives: Solve Problem

Reducing Drop-out Rate in WIC Program

Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program is a Special Supplemental Nutrition Program that provides federal grants to states for supplemental foods, health care referrals, and nutrition education for low-income pregnant, breastfeeding, and non-breastfeeding postpartum women, and to infants and children up to age five who are found to be at nutritional risk. The objective is to meet the nutritional needs of young children and nursing and lactating mothers. This has been shown to improve the health of those involved in the program and to help the children be ready to start school. WIC is one of the U.S.’s most cost effective programs in providing nutrition to young families. WIC serves about half of all infants born in the United States.

The state of Texas wanted help in reducing their drop-out rate. A family may become ineligible due to income level or if the youngest child is older than five. However, if a family is eligible, it is better for the children if they remain in the program. We gave the administrators of the program a dashboard (based on PowerBI) with three views:

  • Current state
  • Past trends
  • Drop-out predictions

Current State

The first view showed a map of Texas with the Local Agencies highlighted. The number of certificates for the five certificate types is shown overall (upper left), by County (lower left), by city (lower center and Local Agency-Clinic. One can click on any of these to zero in on the status of that area. For example, if you click on Houston in the lower center, you get the next view.

Now the information specific to Houston is highlighted.

Past Trends

The next view show a history of the number of Certificates of each type. The default view is for the state as a whole and for the entire period of the data. There are some interesting trends, especially for Category ‘C’ in the lower left panel. Management may already have an explanation for these trends, but it’s helpful to see them over time. Again, one can select a specific city, county, Local Agency or clinic as well as a subset of the date range.

When we select Dallas for the most recent two years we get the next view.

Drop-out Predictions

The final view gives a prediction of who is likely to drop out of the program prior to the Certificate end date. The opening view is for the entire state. A client is considered a “likely” dropout based on the threshold set by the slider bar in the upper right. The user has the ability to change this if desired. For this example, a client is considered a likely dropout if the probability they will drop out is greater than 50%. The list in the lower left is the clients with the highest probability of dropping out, sorted decreasing by dropout probability. (The client ID (CID) has been hidden for confidentiality reasons.) There are some clients listed here with a very high probability of dropping out. The middle lower panel is the number of dropouts by city and lower right by clinic for a given Local Agency.

One way this view would be used by local management is to retrieve the information specific to the City or Clinic. When the highest bar in the lower right graph is clicked the Clinic management will get a list of their clients who are most likely to drop out of the program and they can take appropriate action to encourage them to stay in the program.

These predictions were based on numerous sources of data and were constructed using Machine Learning.

Crime and Economics

Crime has always been a problem for society. Over the course of human history there have been plenty of instances in which the level of criminal activity rose to an uncontrollable level. One example of this calamitous process of increasing social upheaval was observed in the events leading up to the French Revolution. Late nineteenth century England provides another equally applicable illustration. Clearly, it would be prudent to find whether there is a root cause attributed to these surges in social lawlessness.

This is not the first time such an endeavor has been carried out in data science. The reason for the spike in violent crime that occurred throughout the late 1990s across the United States has long been a subject of debate. Strangely enough one of the more credible arguments attributes the violent crime to emissions from gasoline with a lead additive. This practice of adding lead to gasoline was finally ended in 1986 but the psychological damage to the children that grew up breathing in those fumes had already taken its toll.

Case Study – Seattle WA

The purpose of this report is to determine what possible causes, if any, may account for increasing crime trends. These possible causes have been isolated to only include socioeconomic variables that are deemed reliable in their estimation. The research was done only for the city of Seattle WA for the six year period beginning in 2008. However, it was structured in order that the process could be repeated in other cities. My research plan included the following stages:

  1. Researching theories of notable experts in the field.
    • Primary expert used was Gary Becker and his ‘Economic Model of Crime’
  2. Empirical analysis of raw data and analysis of quantified results.
    • This was accomplished using a time series, multiple regression model. The independent variables used were CPI, unemployment (with lags), economic growth index, and population.
  3. Interview of law enforcement official along with researching of historical validity.
  4. Recommendation of further study and actions the public can take to prevent increasing crime trends.

I found a strong connection between economic indicators and reported criminal activity. The results of the model detailed that increased inflation (consumer price index) had the largest impact on increasing crime. These results could be interpreted as the following:

A 1% increase in in prices (CPI) causes a

  • 3% increase in Assaults
  • 4% increase in Burglaries
  • 5% increase in Robberies

This study was done in the hopes of finding an economic variable that would not just predict but allow prevention of sudden increases in crime. The link between crime and increased prices provides a relationship that helps decision makers understand the crime problem and may suggest proactive steps society can take, given that the model and results are accurate.

For further details, please see the full report.

Reducing Legal Fees

Although we would hope it weren’t the case, sometimes our customers have a problem. It may be with the product/service itself, or it may be with the licensing process or other issue. This often leads to what is known as the “moment of truth” when the response to the customer determines whether that customer will abandon you, remain as an unhappy customer or become a loyal advocate. These interactions should be anticipated and a planned response ready for the occasion. Some of the responses are quick and inexpensive and others may be prolonged and expensive. Are the expensive solutions worth it? Can we implement inexpensive solutions that have higher ROI than the more expensive ones? An experiment can help determine how we should respond.

Case Study – Insurance Company

This insurance company had done several process improvement projects, some with designed experiments, to improve cost structure and customer satisfaction in the call center, insurance application and claims processing processes but still had a significant problem. There was an alarming trend toward more claimants hiring attorneys where there was bodily injury (BI) after an auto accident. When they looked at the data for a large number of claims they found that for claims with an attorney involvement 1) the cost to the company was significantly higher, 2) the claims process took significantly longer and 3) the claimant received less than $100 on average. Therefore, it seemed it would be in everyone’s best interest to reduce attorney involvement in the claims process (except for the attorneys 😉 ).

At the beginning of this effort 40% of the claims with BI had attorney involvement. Initial process improvement efforts targeting the “low-hanging fruit” lowered that to 36%. Each reduction of 1% equated to a savings of more than $5,000,000 to the company.

They held brainstorming sessions with many employees and did several surveys to get a long list of potential ideas they could test to reduce the percentage of claims where an attorney was retained in the first 60 days after the accident. They narrowed the list of ideas to be tested down to 15.

The screening test showed four ideas that had a beneficial effect (in order of benefit):

  1. Pay more than blue book value when the value of the automobile was debatably higher. (This was a controversial finding which went against the philosophy of the CEO and the industry – to pay more than necessary for property damage claims in order to reduce the overall cost of bodily injury claims.)
  2. When appropriate (and legal) give the claimant an open-ended BI release form, i.e. if the claimant came back later with additional medical expenses than originally anticipated, the company would pay those expenses.
  3. Increase the number of in-person contacts with the claimant.
  4. Increase the range and discretion by agents in settling BI claims.

These ideas were all put into a second (refining) experiment and not only were they validated, they got a more precise estimate of the cost and benefit of each idea. The final, verified improvement in percentage of claims with attorney involvement was a reduction of an additional 8%, from 36% to 28%.